* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 110 105 89 75 64 54 43 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 110 105 89 75 64 54 43 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 113 109 103 95 81 67 56 46 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 1 5 10 19 21 25 28 35 40 46 44 43 42 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 1 2 2 3 3 4 7 8 2 11 0 -2 -3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 84 86 90 248 249 258 274 257 260 243 247 237 234 230 227 228 344 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.5 24.8 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 138 129 124 119 116 113 106 110 105 105 104 102 101 102 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -53.3 -54.0 -52.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 57 55 51 45 41 40 39 37 35 35 29 28 34 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 36 35 34 32 30 27 24 20 16 14 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 110 96 85 79 76 72 56 36 32 4 8 0 0 42 92 130 200 MB DIV 83 97 52 15 0 19 16 14 1 -10 6 -1 -19 21 38 56 -6 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 5 2 5 1 -1 -5 -9 -22 -20 LAND (KM) 1570 1598 1613 1618 1628 1663 1723 1821 1925 1981 2011 1933 1907 1902 1876 1655 1434 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.4 126.2 126.9 127.5 128.6 129.8 131.2 132.5 134.0 135.4 136.5 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 6 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -37. -45. -53. -59. -64. -67. -69. -72. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -23. -23. -22. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -5. -10. -26. -40. -51. -61. -72. -85. -96.-108.-116.-123.-129.-131. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 124.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 698.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 3.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##