* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 118 118 112 97 80 68 56 45 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 118 118 118 112 97 80 68 56 45 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 116 114 109 102 87 72 59 48 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 1 6 17 24 24 31 33 40 47 53 43 44 43 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -7 0 0 2 1 2 4 6 1 1 0 -1 -3 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 66 67 91 120 257 251 272 259 262 246 248 240 244 244 237 234 306 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.4 24.7 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 134 127 120 115 113 106 108 104 105 105 102 100 103 105 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.6 -53.6 -52.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 55 53 46 43 41 39 38 37 34 37 34 36 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 37 35 36 34 33 31 29 26 22 19 17 14 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 108 94 86 74 75 59 39 32 16 0 -1 -2 19 63 136 200 MB DIV 52 71 69 40 9 12 4 16 5 -6 12 18 -11 19 3 14 12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 3 5 3 4 3 0 1 0 2 -16 -17 LAND (KM) 1524 1577 1618 1623 1634 1662 1712 1788 1926 1966 1998 1972 1907 1912 1857 1689 1581 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.1 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.8 125.8 126.5 127.2 128.5 129.6 130.9 132.6 133.9 135.1 136.1 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -59. -64. -66. -69. -72. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -15. -22. -28. -32. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -7. -10. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. -3. -18. -35. -47. -59. -70. -81. -96.-107.-116.-124.-131.-131. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 123.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 656.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.8% 14.3% 10.0% 10.4% 11.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 4.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##