* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 122 123 120 104 88 74 62 51 38 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 121 122 123 120 104 88 74 62 51 38 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 120 121 118 112 95 80 66 53 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 7 1 10 22 26 31 36 39 43 53 47 40 40 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -6 2 3 1 3 4 6 8 0 1 -2 -3 -4 12 SHEAR DIR 88 73 76 75 135 258 257 269 257 255 241 240 237 240 230 226 288 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.2 26.4 25.3 25.3 24.5 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 144 136 127 115 115 107 108 104 106 107 104 106 108 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -52.0 -53.3 -53.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 60 54 49 43 39 40 41 39 36 37 34 34 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 37 38 36 35 34 32 30 27 22 19 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 105 102 108 109 100 87 77 71 57 39 32 -3 4 -8 23 43 54 200 MB DIV 72 52 74 73 49 -2 21 9 16 -6 3 16 0 -11 3 3 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 5 10 6 8 3 1 -2 -3 -7 -13 -29 LAND (KM) 1467 1525 1591 1609 1627 1647 1698 1781 1902 1944 1975 1985 1917 1857 1818 1822 1836 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.0 125.9 126.7 128.0 129.3 130.7 132.3 133.7 135.0 136.0 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -24. -33. -42. -50. -57. -62. -64. -67. -69. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -20. -27. -30. -31. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 8. 5. -11. -27. -41. -53. -64. -77. -92.-104.-115.-121.-128.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.1% 16.0% 12.9% 12.5% 15.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 5.3% 4.3% 4.2% 5.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 25.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##