* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 106 110 114 116 109 97 84 70 57 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 98 106 110 114 116 109 97 84 70 57 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 100 106 109 111 109 100 87 74 62 50 41 32 25 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 8 6 2 7 15 23 24 31 34 45 51 47 44 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 3 4 8 5 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 51 67 77 86 114 292 266 282 260 252 229 229 232 234 233 234 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.6 26.4 25.4 25.5 24.5 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 148 148 140 127 117 117 106 108 103 105 104 102 103 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 66 65 55 49 42 39 39 39 39 42 44 41 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 35 35 38 40 39 38 37 34 32 30 26 24 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 94 99 109 109 107 102 101 88 81 71 52 44 27 17 7 41 74 200 MB DIV 67 91 87 47 32 46 6 15 -6 14 10 4 4 14 10 2 -2 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -8 -6 -4 0 0 6 4 9 11 6 4 2 -1 -3 -14 LAND (KM) 1290 1335 1392 1452 1521 1613 1653 1728 1819 1911 1944 1944 1894 1832 1731 1549 1381 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.6 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.4 121.7 122.9 124.1 126.3 127.9 129.5 131.0 132.4 133.7 134.8 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 14 14 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 20. 24. 26. 19. 7. -6. -20. -33. -46. -59. -70. -78. -87. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 119.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.1% 37.6% 33.8% 23.3% 18.2% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.6% 35.9% 23.7% 21.7% 15.5% 10.3% 2.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 48.5% 4.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.7% 26.0% 20.1% 15.6% 11.6% 11.3% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 72.0% 68.0% 53.0% 40.0% 29.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##