* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 97 105 109 116 115 105 93 81 66 51 39 26 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 89 97 105 109 116 115 105 93 81 66 51 39 26 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 89 97 102 105 109 107 99 88 74 62 50 40 31 25 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 9 9 5 2 10 21 25 31 36 44 47 48 48 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 -1 -6 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 8 4 3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 94 57 50 64 84 68 229 284 277 274 250 244 227 228 228 229 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.7 25.7 25.5 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 148 146 137 130 119 117 109 110 107 106 100 97 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 68 69 63 53 47 40 40 40 43 45 42 38 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 35 35 38 38 38 38 37 34 31 30 26 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 97 89 94 104 111 104 100 104 91 80 73 53 53 30 37 49 73 200 MB DIV 94 80 98 96 62 40 34 14 -3 23 14 -2 3 -1 2 -12 -8 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -12 -9 -4 -4 2 0 8 3 10 12 6 5 -2 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 1207 1291 1367 1415 1475 1574 1642 1718 1777 1847 1924 1923 1903 1834 1709 1549 1450 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.8 120.2 121.5 122.7 124.8 126.8 128.6 130.0 131.3 132.7 133.9 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 20 16 15 11 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -27. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 8. 3. 1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 25. 29. 36. 35. 25. 13. 1. -14. -29. -41. -54. -63. -72. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 117.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.61 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.6% 47.2% 36.7% 27.8% 20.6% 23.9% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 42.4% 51.7% 32.8% 31.5% 17.4% 17.0% 5.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 52.5% 25.1% 21.4% 17.0% 5.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.5% 41.3% 30.3% 25.5% 14.4% 14.1% 8.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 71.0% 89.0% 87.0% 79.0% 68.0% 42.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##