* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 76 86 96 105 117 122 118 108 98 83 73 59 47 36 25 17 V (KT) LAND 65 76 86 96 105 117 122 118 108 98 83 73 59 47 36 25 17 V (KT) LGEM 65 76 86 94 101 112 116 115 104 89 75 63 52 42 33 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 8 8 9 4 4 9 19 21 27 33 40 43 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 2 -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 4 6 -2 -3 -9 SHEAR DIR 79 91 84 61 46 59 45 269 285 279 275 250 237 224 234 229 227 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.7 25.7 24.9 24.9 24.5 24.4 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 148 147 146 149 147 141 131 120 119 111 110 107 106 98 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 69 69 69 64 54 50 42 41 42 44 38 31 31 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 30 32 37 39 39 40 40 37 36 33 31 27 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 99 106 96 98 108 104 100 96 89 80 77 65 69 58 53 77 200 MB DIV 101 111 106 77 82 66 54 29 11 -1 11 12 3 4 -3 -3 -3 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -8 -7 -13 -4 -3 1 2 8 4 16 13 4 0 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1072 1142 1226 1304 1381 1491 1607 1659 1706 1773 1854 1950 1976 1930 1818 1649 1440 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.9 117.3 118.7 120.0 122.5 124.8 126.6 128.2 129.8 131.2 132.6 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 16 12 16 19 15 12 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 21. 20. 14. 10. 6. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 21. 12. 4. -2. -7. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 21. 31. 40. 52. 57. 53. 43. 33. 18. 8. -6. -18. -29. -40. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 114.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.66 11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -8.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.3% 68.8% 59.7% 53.9% 42.5% 38.8% 24.6% 11.0% Logistic: 35.2% 56.3% 39.2% 36.0% 18.9% 27.1% 19.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 58.7% 43.3% 46.6% 37.6% 11.8% 12.1% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 50.7% 56.1% 48.5% 42.5% 24.4% 26.0% 14.8% 4.7% DTOPS: 72.0% 94.0% 93.0% 85.0% 70.0% 81.0% 64.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##