* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 20 21 17 17 21 19 19 12 18 27 38 37 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 0 1 2 1 -5 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 172 168 149 137 140 157 174 194 208 211 209 190 190 189 202 206 227 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.9 25.8 24.8 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.5 22.4 21.1 20.1 18.9 26.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 138 134 133 120 109 97 94 93 95 85 72 62 62 130 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 1 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 66 59 58 55 53 48 46 39 37 32 35 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 69 73 83 88 65 42 28 10 6 11 13 11 6 24 0 18 200 MB DIV 50 61 64 61 53 51 6 4 0 -6 -14 5 -3 15 32 28 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 -7 -6 -13 -2 LAND (KM) 655 711 681 682 710 784 819 794 754 670 580 453 326 131 55 23 -110 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.4 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.2 112.1 113.1 114.1 115.9 117.2 117.7 117.6 117.1 116.4 115.9 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 3 3 4 5 8 10 11 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 24. 21. 17. 13. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -14. -17. -21. -28. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -30. -38. -46. -52. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##