* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 26 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 17 22 22 26 26 26 28 30 34 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 1 2 5 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 248 239 237 249 272 289 291 277 267 287 291 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.3 24.0 24.1 24.5 24.3 24.6 25.3 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 106 103 105 109 107 110 117 119 119 122 122 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 40 37 35 33 34 35 35 33 29 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 28 22 15 21 12 14 10 1 -26 -33 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -19 -18 -20 -21 -17 -21 -8 2 3 -22 -26 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 4 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1652 1770 1886 1976 1915 1624 1375 1129 928 779 680 634 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.8 22.4 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.9 131.1 132.5 133.8 136.5 139.3 141.7 144.1 146.1 147.7 149.0 150.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -9. -14. -19. -26. -33. -39. -45. -50. -52. -54. -54. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.6 128.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##