* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 34 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 34 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 30 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 12 15 20 21 24 26 29 32 32 24 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 8 5 1 0 0 0 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 352 330 293 288 280 256 245 254 261 275 281 263 257 281 301 338 30 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.9 24.1 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 112 109 112 104 106 104 104 107 113 116 116 119 121 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 -55.6 -56.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 47 46 40 35 32 29 30 30 29 25 22 24 29 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 13 12 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 52 47 44 38 38 41 32 30 31 29 22 -6 -37 -39 -66 -94 200 MB DIV 5 7 0 -12 -11 -10 -8 -23 -33 -17 -13 -11 -26 -30 -25 -19 -26 700-850 TADV 5 7 8 9 9 4 3 -6 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 1072 1126 1185 1256 1330 1504 1714 1901 2050 1801 1541 1287 1053 907 820 775 808 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.5 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.4 124.3 125.3 126.2 128.3 130.6 132.9 135.2 137.6 140.1 142.6 145.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 9 6 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -21. -27. -33. -37. -42. -45. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 122.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##