* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 39 38 34 29 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 39 38 34 29 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 44 40 37 34 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 5 7 11 9 10 13 14 17 20 25 28 29 31 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 3 6 9 5 9 3 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 5 340 348 3 330 329 295 257 251 256 250 263 266 256 256 294 327 SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 24.6 24.8 24.2 24.6 24.5 24.5 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 117 120 119 118 117 109 111 105 109 107 107 112 114 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 59 54 51 45 40 37 33 33 34 34 35 32 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 22 21 21 21 19 17 15 13 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 20 17 27 37 43 45 39 44 34 47 39 33 16 -7 -36 -56 200 MB DIV 15 -1 8 15 4 -12 -3 -10 -21 -28 -26 -5 -7 -6 -13 -16 -5 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 5 8 7 10 5 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 931 989 1053 1102 1147 1276 1426 1594 1774 1957 2079 1882 1674 1498 1337 1194 1068 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.1 123.0 124.9 126.8 128.8 130.8 132.8 134.9 136.8 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.6 119.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##