* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 37 35 35 37 38 36 32 29 26 23 20 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 37 37 35 35 37 38 36 32 29 26 23 20 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 32 29 27 24 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 9 8 9 5 8 5 11 13 14 15 21 25 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 -2 0 2 1 6 5 11 8 15 10 6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 37 12 342 345 357 320 325 287 258 261 253 261 266 259 254 279 287 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.6 25.9 25.2 24.9 25.0 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 117 116 120 118 122 114 111 113 108 108 109 110 114 115 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 59 58 53 48 42 38 35 31 34 34 34 30 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 25 25 24 24 24 23 21 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 22 26 30 43 50 44 49 43 49 53 50 39 30 7 -16 200 MB DIV 18 30 5 8 10 -9 -4 -22 -16 -19 -28 -8 -8 -4 -16 -20 -14 700-850 TADV -3 2 2 4 5 10 8 5 3 0 1 0 2 0 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 891 943 999 1060 1112 1198 1330 1475 1635 1823 2006 2037 1871 1652 1424 1251 1160 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.2 122.0 123.7 125.4 127.3 129.0 131.1 133.3 135.3 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 8 9 10 9 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 118.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##