* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 37 38 42 41 39 37 31 27 23 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 37 38 42 41 39 37 31 27 23 21 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 35 34 33 30 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 5 6 10 9 8 9 7 14 16 17 19 21 22 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 3 3 6 9 7 7 4 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 34 15 341 340 318 311 278 256 242 260 259 273 267 255 280 299 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.4 25.7 25.6 25.9 24.7 25.2 24.5 24.9 24.6 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 119 117 119 119 122 109 115 108 112 109 108 113 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 57 53 49 44 41 36 33 32 33 33 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 22 19 17 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 27 25 23 24 37 42 50 46 49 51 67 62 58 42 23 3 200 MB DIV 21 14 7 9 12 4 -11 -3 -18 -10 -34 -24 -9 -10 -15 -22 -17 700-850 TADV -9 -3 1 2 4 6 7 7 2 5 0 2 1 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 858 889 930 990 1056 1141 1252 1397 1535 1712 1927 2098 1902 1694 1517 1352 1202 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.2 121.1 122.8 124.4 126.3 128.0 130.0 132.3 134.6 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 10 9 9 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -0. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 117.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##