* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172020 09/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 46 53 60 63 66 64 61 58 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 46 53 60 63 66 64 61 58 55 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 38 38 37 36 34 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 9 7 5 3 3 5 4 9 8 15 12 17 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 4 4 8 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 25 34 42 43 45 53 322 341 303 306 270 250 272 270 279 284 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.1 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 149 147 142 134 122 122 123 124 123 114 116 115 119 119 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 65 66 62 58 53 50 47 43 39 35 33 35 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 19 20 20 22 23 24 27 28 30 29 29 29 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 25 39 49 49 43 35 26 38 46 53 49 54 80 98 100 102 93 200 MB DIV 40 50 65 36 17 16 23 18 -10 13 -14 -7 -12 -8 -27 -15 -21 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -9 -12 -7 -1 3 3 6 10 6 4 6 9 3 8 2 LAND (KM) 704 679 682 718 768 839 946 1075 1191 1306 1411 1554 1756 1940 2132 1967 1725 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.6 113.8 114.9 116.0 118.1 119.9 121.6 123.5 125.0 126.3 128.0 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 9 8 7 7 9 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 11 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 21. 19. 17. 15. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 16. 23. 30. 33. 36. 34. 31. 28. 25. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 111.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 20.1% 19.3% 13.6% 0.0% 17.1% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.9% 6.5% 4.6% 0.0% 5.8% 6.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 13.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##