* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 54 59 59 58 57 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 54 59 59 58 57 53 52 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 29 28 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 9 9 6 0 8 7 11 12 15 18 18 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 3 -1 2 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 4 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 35 22 36 47 50 53 352 322 333 292 284 261 259 257 255 273 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.9 24.6 24.4 24.6 23.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 150 149 147 138 132 123 125 123 123 121 108 105 107 99 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 68 66 64 59 52 54 53 49 45 39 37 34 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 18 18 19 21 21 23 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 38 47 41 37 37 24 50 40 45 52 49 69 79 77 76 200 MB DIV 47 44 49 53 43 12 25 0 -4 -5 8 -3 4 -30 -19 -11 -6 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -10 -10 -10 0 3 4 2 10 8 8 7 8 6 3 2 LAND (KM) 649 683 649 643 662 752 854 970 1071 1161 1275 1380 1473 1594 1741 1870 1961 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.2 112.1 113.2 114.3 116.7 118.7 120.4 121.9 123.3 124.7 126.1 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 15 12 10 5 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 17. 18. 16. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 34. 33. 32. 28. 27. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 110.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.7% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 6.0% 6.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 11.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##