* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 37 36 34 32 30 27 27 27 26 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 37 36 34 32 30 27 27 27 26 27 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 38 36 33 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 23 22 18 17 11 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 6 5 -1 -1 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 73 77 74 66 70 67 97 97 103 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.7 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 154 151 135 128 125 124 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 7 8 5 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 79 78 76 76 71 75 75 78 73 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 34 52 67 57 63 28 31 23 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 58 64 72 65 63 52 12 36 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -6 -6 -8 -12 -19 -6 -10 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 107 80 102 170 189 128 272 342 400 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.1 22.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.9 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.8 110.9 113.2 113.9 114.9 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 9 9 10 7 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 26 28 29 32 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.4 105.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##