* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 51 59 68 73 78 74 71 67 64 59 56 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 51 59 68 73 78 74 71 67 64 59 56 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 40 44 50 56 60 60 57 53 47 40 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 16 18 15 16 14 13 14 22 24 20 16 14 16 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 3 -1 -1 -2 0 4 6 4 3 7 2 6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 28 20 32 45 63 69 54 76 105 120 117 117 114 112 116 121 109 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.5 27.4 27.7 26.4 25.7 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 148 152 154 152 154 149 149 138 142 128 120 120 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 68 69 69 68 73 78 79 74 68 63 61 57 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 14 15 16 20 21 23 22 23 21 21 19 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 35 39 58 57 72 60 78 98 110 97 68 52 57 65 69 200 MB DIV 126 137 107 104 99 94 65 63 60 61 33 23 -3 12 17 3 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -12 -11 -7 -12 -11 -7 0 4 9 2 3 6 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 808 841 851 839 818 759 688 602 513 413 403 498 621 826 1017 1184 1316 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.1 111.3 111.4 111.4 111.1 110.8 110.4 110.4 111.0 112.6 114.7 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 10 11 12 12 10 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 17 14 10 3 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 18. 16. 17. 15. 13. 9. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 38. 43. 48. 44. 41. 37. 34. 29. 26. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 110.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.76 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 31.0% 25.6% 17.4% 0.0% 21.8% 22.1% 27.4% Logistic: 11.7% 37.8% 21.6% 15.6% 3.6% 22.7% 22.5% 12.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.6% Consensus: 9.3% 24.5% 16.4% 11.2% 1.2% 15.0% 15.0% 13.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##