* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 33 41 49 55 56 55 53 50 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 33 41 49 55 56 55 53 50 48 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 27 25 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 8 10 9 9 6 3 14 12 16 14 17 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 5 8 5 6 6 SHEAR DIR 26 17 30 49 39 68 54 33 69 98 108 160 168 165 140 133 135 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.9 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 148 148 145 144 147 144 139 131 127 121 122 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 67 68 67 67 69 70 69 66 60 57 53 47 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 45 58 65 74 59 72 77 79 89 76 72 70 71 65 66 200 MB DIV 91 100 106 105 111 98 91 47 72 38 28 8 -1 -24 -5 8 5 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -7 -11 -18 -16 -9 -10 3 12 12 15 6 1 LAND (KM) 504 504 507 520 531 521 480 443 434 321 385 504 715 939 1152 1333 1439 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.9 19.0 20.2 21.1 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.5 108.7 109.0 109.7 111.1 113.2 115.9 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 13 13 12 10 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 13 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 35. 36. 35. 34. 30. 28. 27. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.5 107.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##