* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 44 52 59 69 73 80 84 82 77 70 65 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 44 52 59 69 73 80 84 82 77 70 65 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 39 43 48 54 56 51 45 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 5 7 13 16 20 13 7 2 3 4 7 8 5 6 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 1 5 5 0 6 0 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -6 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 71 44 38 41 48 21 8 259 360 76 37 22 360 303 289 269 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.3 24.4 23.2 22.6 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 155 158 159 154 154 145 144 139 137 127 108 95 88 89 85 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 78 78 77 76 79 82 82 81 78 75 72 68 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 14 13 15 16 20 23 24 24 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 11 8 5 -3 -19 -15 3 22 9 28 30 86 96 101 76 200 MB DIV 51 39 61 78 94 100 106 128 115 93 52 44 25 49 19 -5 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -8 -5 -5 -8 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 -1 0 1 -8 LAND (KM) 681 683 724 763 787 776 757 706 675 675 607 557 619 776 970 1107 1194 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.6 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.3 17.7 19.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 100.6 101.8 102.9 103.9 105.7 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.5 111.8 113.5 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 25 27 29 26 29 15 11 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 10. 11. 16. 20. 19. 18. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 19. 27. 34. 44. 48. 55. 59. 57. 52. 45. 40. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 99.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 20.6% 7.3% 3.2% 0.4% 6.2% 14.9% 35.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 5.9% Consensus: 0.9% 13.5% 8.6% 1.1% 0.1% 7.6% 11.0% 13.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##