* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 65 66 66 61 52 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 65 66 66 61 52 45 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 37 40 41 39 34 28 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 7 10 13 17 15 11 8 4 8 8 7 11 3 12 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 2 -2 1 4 0 3 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 64 56 45 21 27 25 25 360 359 344 10 27 354 357 308 259 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.1 28.3 27.5 27.6 27.0 25.9 24.1 21.9 21.0 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 155 153 155 160 156 148 139 140 134 123 106 84 74 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 79 79 80 79 78 78 76 78 78 76 76 73 71 63 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 13 14 14 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 2 4 3 -5 -13 -5 4 14 15 19 44 62 50 45 39 200 MB DIV 64 48 58 80 95 87 123 130 108 59 56 9 33 9 -5 -1 20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 -10 -5 -1 0 -4 2 -8 0 -2 7 -1 LAND (KM) 712 697 708 732 754 752 682 624 547 526 504 410 460 591 759 1068 1339 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 11.1 12.4 13.9 15.6 17.0 18.4 19.9 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.0 99.9 100.8 101.8 103.8 105.4 107.0 108.3 109.3 110.6 112.3 114.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 10 11 9 9 10 12 15 18 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 26 24 23 34 30 18 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 9. 9. 10. 7. 3. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 40. 41. 41. 36. 27. 20. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 98.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3% 2.4% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 9.6% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0% 6.9% 7.2% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##