* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 32 27 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 32 27 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 35 32 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 14 17 16 19 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 11 9 4 7 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 211 207 167 165 180 169 206 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.0 22.9 22.8 22.2 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 126 118 116 113 91 89 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 56 55 54 51 43 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 16 4 8 -2 4 7 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -2 -4 17 12 27 5 32 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -16 -12 -10 -8 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 242 232 242 267 415 523 578 521 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.1 29.0 29.7 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.7 115.5 116.5 117.4 119.5 121.3 122.4 123.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -18. -21. -28. -37. -40. -44. -46. -49. -53. -56. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.1 113.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##