* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 78 76 75 70 65 60 55 50 42 32 21 21 21 21 22 V (KT) LAND 85 80 78 76 75 70 65 60 55 50 42 32 21 21 21 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 77 74 72 68 62 53 45 38 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 6 5 7 13 11 20 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 7 8 5 9 3 6 1 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 225 248 251 223 151 177 143 167 167 189 182 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.3 25.9 24.8 23.9 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 143 143 136 122 111 101 87 85 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 66 61 57 56 56 53 50 49 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 24 22 23 20 20 19 17 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 56 44 42 44 33 21 15 25 26 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 87 68 49 47 27 -12 20 14 11 22 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -11 -6 1 -6 -8 -7 -13 -2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 200 147 108 123 141 137 212 243 309 419 514 527 494 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.7 24.8 26.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 30.2 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.2 110.6 111.2 111.7 112.9 114.4 116.4 118.0 119.7 121.4 122.4 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 9 10 8 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -24. -29. -33. -38. -40. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -14. -16. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -43. -53. -64. -64. -64. -64. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.1 109.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.2% 12.7% 11.4% 9.5% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.7% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##