* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 90 88 86 81 77 71 67 62 53 45 34 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LAND 100 94 90 88 86 81 77 71 67 62 53 45 34 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 90 86 83 77 71 64 54 47 38 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 9 7 5 7 8 10 9 19 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 6 6 5 4 10 3 6 0 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 219 221 245 268 152 197 148 170 165 190 195 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 26.9 24.9 24.7 23.2 22.5 22.4 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 142 141 142 141 132 112 110 94 86 85 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -50.4 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 9 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 65 65 58 59 56 58 51 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 25 25 23 23 20 20 19 17 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 66 75 58 35 34 41 27 19 6 14 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 84 88 70 40 11 -11 -8 4 -4 10 4 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -10 -7 1 -1 -7 -4 -9 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 195 137 110 113 130 115 219 252 366 436 505 500 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.3 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.1 112.1 113.3 115.1 117.0 118.7 120.1 121.4 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 11 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -28. -34. -41. -46. -51. -52. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -23. -29. -33. -38. -47. -55. -66. -66. -65. -65. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.6 109.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.52 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.6% 8.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.2% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##