* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 96 93 93 89 83 77 72 66 58 50 41 41 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 100 97 96 93 93 89 83 77 72 66 58 50 41 41 41 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 93 90 86 79 73 65 56 48 39 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 7 9 5 4 6 13 11 19 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 3 6 5 9 4 7 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 226 229 239 259 259 156 182 137 172 168 192 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.9 25.8 24.3 24.1 23.1 22.6 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 152 145 139 136 132 121 105 104 93 87 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 65 60 55 56 54 53 49 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 23 25 25 23 21 20 19 17 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 67 70 56 42 52 38 25 8 23 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 66 79 92 68 40 14 -3 10 -5 20 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -3 -8 -1 -4 -5 -7 -11 -1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 343 276 211 159 123 148 150 203 239 289 406 475 535 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.8 28.1 29.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.7 112.7 114.3 115.9 117.7 119.4 120.8 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 16 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -12. -19. -27. -33. -39. -44. -49. -50. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -34. -42. -50. -59. -59. -59. -59. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 109.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 16.7% 16.3% 10.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.6% 5.4% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##