* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 106 104 100 93 89 82 73 66 58 50 41 33 26 19 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 106 104 100 93 89 82 73 66 58 50 41 33 26 19 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 104 100 93 84 75 64 53 44 36 30 24 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 10 9 6 6 8 8 11 15 12 20 22 21 21 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 2 1 1 4 7 10 4 10 3 7 5 9 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 244 242 242 241 268 173 197 146 184 186 201 205 194 191 208 217 SST (C) 28.7 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.3 24.6 24.5 23.4 22.9 22.2 22.1 22.1 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 155 148 143 136 132 126 109 107 96 91 82 79 79 77 68 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.3 -50.6 -49.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -50.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 8 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 71 69 65 57 59 56 56 51 50 45 43 36 33 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 25 25 26 24 24 21 19 17 15 14 11 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 48 70 78 56 61 66 25 27 12 20 31 24 22 10 9 200 MB DIV 82 77 72 84 83 41 25 2 3 -3 2 20 -6 21 4 10 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 355 347 256 206 164 169 182 203 262 282 398 481 544 531 552 552 597 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.2 26.3 27.3 28.4 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.2 110.5 111.6 112.7 114.1 115.7 117.3 119.0 120.5 121.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 6 2 3 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 19 12 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -25. -34. -41. -48. -53. -58. -62. -66. -71. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -21. -28. -37. -44. -52. -60. -68. -77. -84. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.1 108.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##