* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 72 82 91 105 111 114 108 102 87 75 63 54 45 36 27 V (KT) LAND 55 64 72 82 91 105 111 114 108 102 87 75 63 54 45 36 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 82 91 110 123 123 110 93 76 59 45 35 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 4 4 10 5 3 4 11 16 20 20 13 15 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 0 0 -7 -5 -3 0 2 0 3 0 5 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 29 350 37 92 102 146 134 214 171 158 157 168 178 213 188 206 201 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.1 26.4 25.4 24.4 23.5 22.4 22.0 21.5 21.5 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 168 165 162 159 145 127 117 107 97 86 81 76 76 73 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 81 77 78 75 73 64 59 53 52 50 49 45 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 30 30 31 27 27 25 24 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 28 24 57 56 73 79 88 77 71 81 66 58 35 19 200 MB DIV 74 51 89 129 135 124 110 64 58 32 -1 -11 -2 4 -17 5 9 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -16 -11 -11 0 -1 -3 -7 -2 -8 0 4 2 15 7 16 LAND (KM) 446 450 448 441 453 511 494 398 420 406 473 521 627 766 866 928 961 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 17.1 18.5 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.4 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.6 104.2 105.6 106.9 109.2 110.7 112.1 113.6 115.1 116.7 118.6 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 38 31 29 23 21 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 15. 17. 19. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 20. 12. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 27. 36. 50. 56. 59. 53. 47. 32. 20. 8. -1. -10. -19. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.9 101.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 17.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 19.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 20.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.66 16.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 17.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 12.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -16.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 6.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 18.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 95% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 69.8% 100.0% 99.0% 96.2% 76.9% 94.9% 81.5% 39.3% Logistic: 61.4% 85.1% 79.7% 72.4% 30.3% 78.8% 63.2% 23.5% Bayesian: 75.0% 84.5% 89.4% 83.6% 18.0% 63.8% 29.0% 2.3% Consensus: 68.7% 89.8% 89.4% 84.1% 41.7% 79.2% 57.9% 21.7% DTOPS: 44.0% 79.0% 76.0% 57.0% 43.0% 61.0% 43.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##