* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 50 59 75 88 99 99 98 91 84 76 67 60 53 45 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 50 59 75 88 99 99 98 91 84 76 67 60 53 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 38 42 53 69 88 98 97 86 73 60 48 40 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 1 4 8 12 8 7 8 12 10 10 11 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -5 -5 -3 -1 1 3 3 5 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 17 48 91 39 88 123 114 120 146 113 117 145 154 167 157 181 171 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.0 27.2 25.9 24.9 24.0 22.9 22.4 21.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 163 166 167 168 163 163 155 136 122 112 103 91 86 77 72 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 7 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 80 80 79 80 78 76 67 60 52 52 50 51 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 17 19 21 22 23 28 27 28 27 26 25 21 20 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 32 27 20 39 43 63 68 87 71 59 72 48 36 21 16 200 MB DIV 114 100 133 130 103 116 112 135 79 55 23 1 -7 -8 -4 0 11 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 -2 -4 -5 -8 0 2 -3 -10 1 0 -5 -6 0 5 LAND (KM) 512 503 504 508 516 489 489 535 440 371 381 428 532 560 620 697 757 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 14 13 12 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 24 52 48 34 26 25 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 10. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 11. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 29. 45. 58. 69. 69. 68. 61. 54. 46. 37. 30. 23. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 96.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 TWELVE 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.77 9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -8.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 52.8% 38.0% 28.2% 0.0% 47.9% 66.1% 64.4% Logistic: 15.8% 74.6% 61.9% 46.5% 12.3% 76.7% 82.3% 66.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 19.3% 14.2% 5.2% 0.5% 11.9% 12.1% 44.4% Consensus: 11.3% 48.9% 38.0% 26.6% 4.3% 45.5% 53.5% 58.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 48.0% 27.0% 7.0% 3.0% 18.0% 18.0% 79.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 TWELVE 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##