* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 54 67 82 92 103 105 106 101 96 87 79 74 68 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 54 67 82 92 103 105 106 101 96 87 79 74 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 43 48 61 76 94 108 111 105 97 81 66 55 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 5 4 3 14 7 7 7 7 6 10 12 10 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 0 3 2 7 0 4 SHEAR DIR 80 74 68 49 64 100 105 94 136 147 150 145 176 194 204 151 155 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.2 29.4 29.1 28.3 27.1 25.3 24.8 24.6 23.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 162 162 166 167 169 160 156 147 135 116 110 108 96 86 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 5 5 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 81 82 80 78 81 80 80 79 77 74 66 57 52 46 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 17 22 23 27 28 30 29 29 25 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 67 52 41 34 38 39 43 49 69 57 80 69 67 61 49 64 40 200 MB DIV 111 111 105 109 104 145 143 140 117 109 62 34 12 18 1 -16 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -5 -9 0 0 1 -4 0 6 -3 -11 -1 LAND (KM) 471 487 523 545 524 500 508 502 512 525 431 426 424 472 549 595 668 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 9 10 9 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 13 15 17 51 39 34 21 19 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 16. 24. 26. 28. 25. 22. 16. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 24. 37. 52. 62. 73. 75. 76. 71. 66. 57. 49. 44. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 91.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.73 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 28.0% 26.6% 19.0% 0.0% 28.3% 45.5% 57.4% Logistic: 2.3% 32.3% 17.4% 9.2% 2.8% 42.7% 79.3% 80.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.4% 5.8% 1.6% 0.1% 1.9% 2.8% 35.8% Consensus: 4.5% 22.3% 16.6% 9.9% 1.0% 24.3% 42.6% 58.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 14.0% 47.0% 95.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##