* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 38 48 62 75 87 96 102 102 104 98 95 92 88 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 38 48 62 75 87 96 102 102 104 98 95 92 88 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 42 52 65 79 93 97 91 80 69 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 7 11 12 4 5 10 8 5 11 10 14 11 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 2 2 4 6 12 SHEAR DIR 133 141 125 110 107 108 94 89 104 127 127 183 157 148 163 205 234 SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.4 30.0 30.6 30.4 29.8 29.2 29.3 28.5 27.2 26.1 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 141 149 156 160 166 173 171 164 158 158 150 136 124 115 108 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.3 -51.2 -51.4 -50.6 -50.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 3 6 4 8 6 10 6 8 5 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 79 78 80 79 79 80 83 81 77 71 66 62 59 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 12 13 15 19 20 22 26 30 30 33 30 30 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 73 64 61 33 35 36 48 40 72 74 100 60 62 59 60 200 MB DIV 164 155 128 125 138 136 132 110 126 85 126 99 100 24 30 14 5 700-850 TADV 7 2 1 0 -1 1 2 -6 -5 -1 -2 0 0 -8 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 67 230 327 349 377 422 413 333 290 212 161 213 174 160 221 336 431 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.1 12.0 13.2 14.7 16.4 18.2 20.0 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.5 88.0 89.4 90.6 91.8 94.1 96.6 99.1 101.6 103.9 105.9 107.7 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 12 13 14 15 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 5 9 12 14 23 30 37 26 22 14 12 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 27. 29. 23. 20. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 42. 55. 67. 76. 82. 82. 84. 78. 75. 72. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 86.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 49.3% 32.6% 22.4% 7.7% 63.4% 89.7% 86.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 5.3% Consensus: 2.1% 16.7% 11.1% 7.5% 2.6% 21.2% 30.3% 30.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##