* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 06/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 17 19 19 23 26 27 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 20 22 27 33 38 36 41 45 43 37 38 34 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 238 231 228 222 212 203 202 214 212 224 231 247 252 268 263 266 SST (C) 25.5 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.2 22.1 21.5 20.6 22.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 23.3 24.3 27.2 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 105 101 100 93 81 76 67 84 138 138 137 96 105 135 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 1 1 3 2 4 2 4 6 8 9 12 700-500 MB RH 65 63 58 59 54 48 45 40 42 40 40 43 42 45 44 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -29 -12 6 15 22 5 -12 10 1 40 5 38 5 31 24 200 MB DIV 17 10 9 -2 11 20 17 41 36 59 29 21 -1 34 -2 65 -11 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 0 3 0 -1 -4 -5 -11 0 -4 2 2 3 5 17 LAND (KM) 398 378 379 359 318 241 212 37 -28 0 -275 -532 -775 -971 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.5 24.8 26.6 28.9 31.2 33.7 35.9 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.2 114.4 114.0 113.8 113.3 112.8 111.9 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 6 8 10 12 12 13 11 11 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -16. -27. -38. -44. -49. -52. -57. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -21. -33. -41. -49. -54. -60. -67. -73. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 112.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##