* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 39 44 45 49 49 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 39 44 45 49 49 49 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 19 20 21 23 25 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 21 18 18 15 17 9 10 5 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 46 50 51 47 54 70 83 47 73 59 114 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 137 138 141 141 141 142 142 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 55 52 54 55 57 54 50 49 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -23 -34 -46 -40 -33 -10 0 33 48 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -19 -20 -24 -2 -4 -2 16 -12 -21 -26 -17 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2292 2261 2230 2191 2152 2080 2009 1947 1924 1908 1897 1882 1864 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.3 13.8 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 134.3 134.5 134.9 135.2 135.9 136.7 137.5 137.9 138.2 138.4 138.7 139.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 20. 24. 24. 24. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 134.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##