* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 33 29 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 33 29 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 9 12 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 352 343 315 298 279 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 94 89 84 80 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 51 48 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -20 -29 -30 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 7 15 9 -10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1411 1392 1388 1365 1311 1273 1282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.8 25.8 27.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.6 128.1 128.8 129.4 130.6 131.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -16. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 127.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 353.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING