* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 55 56 58 57 57 53 51 47 42 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 55 56 58 57 57 53 51 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 55 56 56 53 49 43 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 14 18 17 15 15 19 13 10 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 4 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 120 96 65 61 61 55 55 47 60 17 33 327 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.6 25.3 24.0 23.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 133 133 134 133 134 129 116 104 96 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 63 63 63 66 67 69 69 63 53 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 17 19 19 20 19 20 19 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 98 98 101 101 106 112 95 74 40 21 51 47 200 MB DIV 16 33 33 39 41 49 53 34 17 -2 8 -15 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 7 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1621 1664 1706 1730 1753 1793 1787 1696 1573 1459 1430 1502 1524 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.7 15.5 16.8 18.6 20.6 22.8 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.1 124.5 124.8 125.0 125.5 125.6 125.2 124.8 125.2 126.7 128.9 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 6 7 11 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 14 15 15 14 10 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 3. 1. -3. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 123.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 282.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 14.2% 11.4% 9.1% 7.2% 13.8% 11.7% 5.9% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 4.7% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##