* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 59 57 54 55 55 55 55 52 49 41 V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 59 57 54 55 55 55 55 52 49 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 63 60 57 53 53 54 53 51 48 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 19 17 17 18 18 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 167 155 134 123 107 76 57 57 85 82 101 105 102 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.6 25.4 23.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 137 135 136 136 135 129 117 101 90 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 56 59 57 58 58 59 66 65 70 68 67 58 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 19 20 19 19 20 21 20 22 21 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 3 26 42 71 94 122 120 116 116 107 111 114 146 200 MB DIV -1 13 29 17 -5 29 41 29 34 40 35 32 -16 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 1 0 0 2 4 3 8 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1363 1427 1491 1545 1598 1652 1660 1606 1513 1412 1328 1269 1304 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 15.0 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.4 122.9 123.4 123.9 123.8 123.6 123.3 123.3 123.7 125.0 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 1 1 4 6 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 8 10 11 12 9 7 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. -18. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.8 121.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 465.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 7.8% 6.5% 5.5% 2.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.9% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##