* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 65 76 85 86 79 69 60 50 41 33 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 65 76 85 86 79 69 60 50 41 33 26 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 61 71 77 76 68 57 47 39 32 26 22 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 7 12 1 5 4 11 15 18 18 18 15 14 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 337 306 312 331 332 288 240 149 177 190 212 216 228 232 263 270 289 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.4 26.5 25.7 24.9 24.1 24.1 23.5 23.6 24.6 24.6 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 163 157 153 150 130 121 113 103 103 97 98 108 108 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 69 69 64 61 58 57 52 49 44 42 38 33 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 18 23 23 20 18 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 21 28 23 19 30 7 -5 -4 -5 21 42 48 50 45 46 38 200 MB DIV 50 38 49 36 27 42 8 14 15 22 23 7 13 -6 9 -7 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -5 -13 -12 -10 -9 0 5 12 6 6 3 4 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 285 317 361 432 508 495 601 710 894 1023 1159 1318 1502 1664 1813 2039 2052 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.2 107.6 108.8 110.0 112.5 115.2 117.7 120.3 122.6 124.4 126.2 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 9 8 9 8 7 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 30 22 15 12 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 12. 15. 14. 10. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 8. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 36. 45. 46. 39. 29. 20. 10. 1. -7. -14. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 104.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.38 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 32.9% 29.3% 20.6% 15.7% 26.3% 24.5% 11.7% Logistic: 20.6% 47.7% 27.0% 16.6% 4.9% 19.4% 5.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 3.8% 31.8% 8.3% 2.9% 1.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 14.4% 37.5% 21.6% 13.4% 7.2% 16.1% 10.2% 4.5% DTOPS: 18.0% 35.0% 17.0% 8.0% 5.0% 36.0% 55.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##