* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 63 65 64 61 55 49 44 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 63 65 64 61 55 49 44 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 57 54 50 45 41 37 34 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 7 8 7 4 5 3 2 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 356 352 20 10 326 333 1 286 308 211 185 202 210 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.3 23.7 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 126 123 117 106 100 101 98 94 93 93 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 68 66 61 57 51 46 44 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 23 26 25 25 23 22 20 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 36 51 36 56 79 99 94 96 100 88 86 65 200 MB DIV 40 34 32 44 53 16 38 10 3 -7 5 -11 5 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -7 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 874 904 925 950 983 1091 1198 1345 1511 1686 1823 1885 1934 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.9 118.7 119.6 121.5 123.7 126.0 128.2 130.3 132.1 133.6 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 2. 0. -1. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -29. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 116.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 16.4% 12.9% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##