* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 58 69 80 84 90 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 58 69 80 84 90 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 44 51 61 72 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 2 3 2 5 4 2 7 7 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 3 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 75 107 261 263 261 298 169 63 48 21 44 30 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 156 158 157 154 154 154 154 149 136 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 73 73 78 81 78 76 75 73 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 15 17 17 20 22 25 25 30 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 33 20 8 4 0 -8 -5 1 -4 4 19 16 14 200 MB DIV 9 29 42 57 52 109 98 121 80 82 43 59 45 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 LAND (KM) 667 636 608 586 575 535 486 480 494 557 621 622 700 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.4 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.8 104.4 106.0 107.5 109.2 111.1 112.9 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 18 28 50 25 21 29 18 16 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 20. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 28. 39. 50. 54. 60. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 97.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 27.0% 20.4% 17.0% 0.0% 23.7% 24.0% 44.8% Logistic: 3.7% 36.3% 23.1% 7.7% 3.1% 22.1% 42.6% 41.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 7.9% Consensus: 5.2% 21.7% 14.6% 8.2% 1.1% 15.4% 23.3% 31.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 12 UTC ##