* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 38 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 38 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 37 34 31 27 24 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 5 8 5 8 15 19 27 33 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 1 -5 -6 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 229 238 246 276 295 292 303 229 268 271 284 284 289 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 138 134 129 127 122 117 111 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 57 57 58 56 55 49 47 44 40 35 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 36 33 25 21 7 11 5 6 -9 -2 -7 200 MB DIV 32 27 21 12 -6 38 30 -8 -9 -14 -14 -20 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 -5 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1677 1766 1858 1950 2038 2182 2280 2253 2102 1963 1834 1681 1503 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.7 126.8 127.9 129.0 131.0 132.5 133.9 135.2 136.4 137.5 138.9 140.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 13 9 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -18. -26. -33. -39. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 124.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 287.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 22.4% 17.7% 14.3% 13.3% 17.2% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.6% 6.9% 5.2% 4.6% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##