* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 215 242 264 268 257 259 260 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.6 23.0 22.6 22.6 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 89 89 93 89 89 95 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 53 52 50 48 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 16 15 13 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 67 56 52 49 26 16 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -17 -16 -23 -34 -10 -12 -9 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 10 14 4 -1 13 4 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1198 1277 1360 1457 1558 1770 1901 1918 1649 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.0 126.1 127.3 128.6 131.2 133.7 136.6 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -27. -33. -39. -42. -44. -46. -48. -49. -49. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.6 123.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##