* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 41 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 41 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 41 38 32 26 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 1 6 12 11 12 12 13 15 19 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 341 280 217 238 269 251 254 261 279 291 294 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.2 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.9 22.4 22.5 23.1 23.4 23.6 24.1 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 95 92 89 92 87 88 94 97 99 104 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 57 54 51 51 49 44 42 35 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 15 13 11 8 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 64 64 60 53 39 30 16 13 -10 -7 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 5 -23 -32 -17 -28 -7 -7 -15 -8 -10 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -1 10 15 -2 12 4 5 3 2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1051 1117 1191 1275 1364 1554 1757 1881 1921 1674 1452 1212 955 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.8 123.9 125.1 126.3 128.8 131.3 133.9 136.6 139.1 141.4 143.9 146.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -24. -23. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -28. -35. -43. -49. -55. -57. -60. -61. -61. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 121.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##