* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 52 49 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 52 49 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 52 47 40 34 29 24 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 3 10 9 9 11 12 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 -4 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 39 28 37 19 232 266 255 260 252 272 288 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.6 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.3 22.5 22.3 22.2 23.3 23.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 99 92 93 87 85 88 86 85 96 94 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 66 62 56 52 51 47 43 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 22 22 20 19 15 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 39 50 64 66 72 58 45 35 32 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 18 3 4 11 -22 -17 -13 -19 -7 -25 -10 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 7 3 -3 9 5 3 10 0 8 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 818 909 987 1062 1239 1424 1638 1736 1886 1813 1562 1368 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.3 23.2 23.6 23.6 23.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.9 120.1 121.4 122.7 125.2 127.6 130.1 132.5 135.1 137.8 140.4 142.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -16. -21. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -11. -18. -25. -33. -40. -48. -52. -56. -58. -58. -58. -59. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.3 117.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##