* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 71 72 70 62 54 44 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 71 72 70 62 54 44 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 65 64 56 47 40 35 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 9 9 4 3 5 9 13 14 15 17 24 30 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 0 1 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 50 51 45 37 47 42 320 344 255 271 268 288 293 299 306 294 269 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.9 25.6 23.9 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.0 24.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 134 121 103 92 90 90 89 88 92 99 105 104 110 117 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 76 75 74 71 66 63 58 54 50 48 43 41 34 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 16 14 12 9 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 46 48 51 49 72 59 78 73 66 54 37 42 24 24 18 200 MB DIV 58 62 30 17 26 7 20 -12 -15 -22 -20 -16 -29 -18 -13 -13 -11 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -6 -6 1 4 -2 7 -1 5 6 4 8 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 553 544 564 626 658 832 1021 1211 1458 1701 1878 1994 1717 1442 1149 865 588 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.6 22.0 22.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.9 116.2 119.1 121.9 124.7 127.6 130.4 133.1 135.8 138.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 12. 10. 2. -6. -16. -26. -35. -42. -49. -54. -58. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 111.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 29.6% 27.0% 19.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 7.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 12.4% 10.0% 6.7% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 22.0% 15.0% 10.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##