* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 65 66 64 59 52 44 36 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 65 66 64 59 52 44 36 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 62 57 50 43 36 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 7 5 5 5 11 14 15 17 16 20 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 0 0 3 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 33 42 48 55 42 49 59 347 325 280 267 274 289 303 291 284 277 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.8 24.2 23.2 23.1 22.6 22.9 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 138 133 106 96 95 89 92 89 94 98 103 105 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 75 75 72 68 64 59 54 49 47 44 43 39 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 26 27 27 26 23 21 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 36 40 45 55 59 81 83 96 84 79 54 49 27 22 15 200 MB DIV 47 49 47 27 14 6 14 16 -23 -16 -16 -9 -10 -38 -12 -21 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -4 -3 4 -3 2 5 -1 6 0 10 3 9 9 LAND (KM) 592 557 544 578 643 770 977 1176 1407 1658 1906 2019 1728 1480 1236 981 704 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.6 112.5 113.8 115.1 118.0 120.9 124.0 126.8 129.7 132.7 135.5 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 4. -1. -8. -16. -24. -32. -38. -45. -49. -51. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 110.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 24.4% 24.2% 17.4% 13.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 9.9% 8.7% 6.0% 4.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 19.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##