* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 59 59 56 52 46 40 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 59 59 56 52 46 40 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 55 52 47 41 35 31 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 11 5 8 5 3 7 6 11 14 17 22 26 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -6 -2 -1 3 2 4 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 29 27 37 40 44 71 73 41 19 291 281 280 281 287 295 287 281 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.0 25.1 23.8 23.1 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 138 135 116 102 95 92 93 88 90 95 99 103 104 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 74 73 72 74 72 68 63 62 57 53 49 48 47 45 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 24 24 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 14 13 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 40 34 42 47 48 73 79 69 75 59 49 26 23 6 4 200 MB DIV 72 53 54 44 12 25 12 32 -1 -17 -20 -9 -9 -18 -22 -11 -17 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 1 -2 3 4 6 5 11 8 9 6 LAND (KM) 554 599 573 564 585 701 882 1063 1296 1529 1762 1970 1915 1647 1393 1127 852 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.7 111.7 112.8 113.9 116.6 119.6 122.5 125.4 128.2 130.9 133.7 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -43. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 109.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 25.3% 17.7% 15.4% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.6% 6.3% 5.3% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 21.0% 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##