* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 64 70 69 62 55 46 39 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 64 70 69 62 55 46 39 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 61 62 62 57 50 43 38 32 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 10 11 5 6 5 4 1 6 11 12 16 20 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 3 2 5 2 5 SHEAR DIR 5 6 18 35 32 54 81 70 45 81 268 279 279 268 274 290 279 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.5 24.1 23.4 23.2 22.7 23.1 22.5 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 140 138 130 105 97 95 90 95 88 92 98 102 103 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 80 76 74 74 77 73 70 67 60 55 52 52 49 45 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 24 23 27 26 24 22 20 18 16 13 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 26 33 37 45 46 63 91 80 85 60 49 40 32 20 3 200 MB DIV 112 81 49 63 47 33 28 8 31 -10 -21 -8 5 -8 -28 -10 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 0 -4 1 -8 0 -2 3 3 3 10 7 16 8 10 LAND (KM) 534 575 595 571 569 665 784 994 1160 1371 1615 1878 2047 1773 1505 1241 989 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.2 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.8 112.8 115.2 118.0 120.9 123.6 126.3 129.1 132.1 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 14. 7. -0. -9. -16. -24. -31. -38. -41. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 109.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.53 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 28.5% 20.9% 17.8% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 7.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 12.2% 8.0% 6.4% 0.1% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 28.0% 19.0% 13.0% 11.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##