* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 66 70 76 79 75 68 60 52 43 36 29 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 66 70 76 79 75 68 60 52 43 36 29 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 66 70 71 65 55 46 39 33 28 24 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 10 13 8 5 6 6 3 6 11 10 13 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 4 6 6 7 SHEAR DIR 13 23 16 41 42 36 34 81 87 85 16 300 284 283 270 258 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.1 23.8 22.9 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.2 22.6 23.4 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 145 143 143 136 125 102 92 92 87 88 85 89 97 102 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 76 77 78 81 80 78 78 76 73 68 63 58 57 54 51 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 21 22 24 27 26 25 23 22 19 18 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 21 23 38 38 43 65 83 109 110 109 105 101 76 69 40 200 MB DIV 112 125 118 74 64 64 34 23 19 27 -19 -7 -12 -5 -4 -3 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -6 -1 -7 -3 -3 0 0 1 -1 0 3 4 7 3 LAND (KM) 483 487 513 566 556 552 631 725 902 1062 1274 1532 1782 1983 1790 1535 1302 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.2 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.0 110.1 111.1 113.0 115.2 117.8 120.3 123.0 125.9 128.9 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 11 10 12 13 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 16. 20. 26. 29. 25. 18. 10. 2. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 107.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 41.8% 31.9% 21.9% 16.2% 24.9% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 29.1% 16.2% 9.5% 2.8% 8.9% 6.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.0% 6.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 25.9% 17.7% 11.2% 6.4% 11.4% 9.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 12.0% 31.0% 22.0% 17.0% 11.0% 31.0% 11.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##