* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 47 57 69 80 87 87 83 77 70 62 53 45 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 47 57 69 80 87 87 83 77 70 62 53 45 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 65 73 74 68 59 50 43 37 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 10 7 5 4 9 14 16 8 4 5 6 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 38 28 33 15 8 81 62 43 43 50 54 324 280 270 283 283 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.0 24.2 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 160 155 146 147 142 134 124 105 104 93 87 87 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 80 80 82 79 80 81 79 74 67 62 58 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 20 23 27 30 32 32 30 29 28 24 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 1 -3 4 11 28 35 49 61 73 105 114 119 114 105 98 200 MB DIV 71 87 121 126 110 131 115 102 46 44 36 57 4 2 -21 -17 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -2 -1 -7 -5 -4 0 -1 3 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 594 590 578 573 581 590 653 681 670 740 816 964 1107 1283 1453 1657 1789 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.4 104.6 105.6 106.6 108.3 110.1 112.1 113.9 115.7 117.9 120.4 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 10 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 47 51 41 31 23 12 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 21. 19. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 22. 21. 17. 15. 12. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 22. 34. 45. 52. 52. 48. 42. 35. 27. 18. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 30.7% 28.4% 19.8% 15.5% 25.3% 39.3% 34.2% Logistic: 0.7% 5.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 9.2% 39.3% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.8% 7.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% Consensus: 5.1% 16.1% 12.9% 7.7% 5.3% 11.5% 26.2% 17.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 11.0% 20.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##