* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052020 07/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 49 57 65 78 87 92 97 97 94 87 81 74 67 59 49 V (KT) LAND 35 42 49 57 65 78 87 92 97 97 94 87 81 74 67 59 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 80 92 99 100 95 83 72 63 54 46 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 13 12 7 3 5 3 11 14 10 3 3 1 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 40 41 53 46 29 14 18 25 47 52 50 49 359 339 276 288 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.6 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 162 161 152 149 148 142 137 130 118 106 96 93 89 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 80 77 78 78 78 80 81 81 79 79 73 72 66 57 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 19 20 24 27 27 27 25 25 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 15 10 1 2 9 27 40 62 58 77 100 104 88 91 81 200 MB DIV 97 95 102 102 118 123 132 110 101 47 46 27 36 5 -10 -18 -8 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 -7 -5 -3 1 0 4 0 -4 LAND (KM) 639 640 640 649 643 661 663 737 775 783 828 913 1070 1163 1232 1439 1755 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 102.0 103.1 104.2 105.2 107.3 109.0 110.6 112.4 114.1 115.8 118.1 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 10 11 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 50 52 37 22 14 12 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 16. 19. 20. 18. 14. 13. 10. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 30. 43. 52. 57. 62. 62. 59. 52. 46. 39. 32. 24. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 100.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -7.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 53.4% 35.2% 23.2% 17.7% 39.4% 57.5% 50.2% Logistic: 13.7% 51.6% 31.3% 23.5% 4.9% 51.8% 64.8% 51.5% Bayesian: 10.2% 48.4% 44.4% 25.7% 1.8% 30.4% 26.4% 19.7% Consensus: 14.5% 51.1% 37.0% 24.1% 8.1% 40.5% 49.6% 40.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 37.0% 23.0% 13.0% 6.0% 33.0% 56.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##