* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052020 07/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 48 57 69 77 82 87 91 93 86 83 76 68 61 54 V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 48 57 69 77 82 87 91 93 86 83 76 68 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 51 59 68 77 86 87 81 70 62 54 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 15 13 12 6 2 2 4 9 12 9 6 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 8 3 3 2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 56 31 29 47 57 36 13 352 142 80 37 31 9 17 303 279 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.6 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.4 24.7 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 160 161 154 146 144 140 129 111 107 103 98 95 92 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 81 82 81 78 77 78 80 80 80 79 77 73 69 66 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 16 19 23 27 26 28 29 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 3 15 14 -10 5 8 38 35 52 64 107 135 131 105 60 200 MB DIV 64 90 97 98 95 105 120 114 104 100 42 43 40 35 9 -1 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -5 -1 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 658 659 668 677 675 628 584 564 597 588 565 685 878 1091 1234 1263 1215 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.8 14.2 15.4 16.7 17.8 19.0 19.8 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.0 101.0 102.1 103.2 105.1 106.8 108.3 109.9 111.5 113.5 116.2 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 13 13 13 9 5 5 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 37 37 47 38 21 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 21. 22. 20. 17. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 27. 39. 47. 52. 57. 61. 63. 56. 53. 46. 38. 31. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 99.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 FIVE 07/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 40.4% 28.5% 19.5% 0.0% 25.9% 40.6% 52.1% Logistic: 29.8% 68.4% 44.8% 33.1% 6.7% 56.0% 52.3% 57.5% Bayesian: 14.6% 60.1% 43.0% 31.7% 0.8% 32.5% 41.8% 30.6% Consensus: 20.4% 56.3% 38.8% 28.1% 2.5% 38.2% 44.9% 46.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 18.0% 26.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 FIVE 07/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##