* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012019 06/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 3 6 8 12 16 19 21 26 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 121 168 190 155 197 197 204 205 238 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.0 27.1 25.7 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 149 144 135 135 120 112 110 106 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 60 57 57 55 52 52 42 34 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 12 8 6 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 14 -3 -19 -24 -23 -19 -16 -8 -14 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 54 39 31 24 17 22 15 5 -10 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -9 -3 0 10 10 8 5 8 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 432 489 578 683 749 791 875 939 1060 1187 1304 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.7 18.9 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.7 109.2 110.6 111.9 114.4 116.4 118.1 120.2 121.9 123.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 11 9 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 4. -5. -16. -23. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 106.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 24.0% 22.8% 17.3% 0.0% 19.3% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 14.1% 11.7% 1.8% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 12.8% 11.5% 6.4% 1.4% 6.5% 6.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##