* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 34 38 41 42 42 42 44 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 34 38 41 42 42 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 14 14 14 13 17 9 9 9 13 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -6 -2 -4 -2 0 7 9 SHEAR DIR 117 122 126 138 154 189 216 224 231 195 231 230 233 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 168 167 166 163 162 163 165 166 166 166 166 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 65 66 73 71 69 65 63 60 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 36 33 30 42 28 38 25 34 19 26 24 200 MB DIV 115 124 117 100 110 101 69 61 56 57 54 61 68 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 361 357 361 367 328 267 248 277 346 383 368 379 385 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.7 12.6 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.2 94.7 95.1 95.6 96.4 97.2 97.6 97.8 98.0 98.4 98.4 98.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 28 30 32 29 28 31 37 41 39 40 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 93.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.1 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 18 UTC ## ##